Photo: Flickr/No Lands Too Foreign

It's been four months since the beginning of uprisings in Egypt that ultimately ousted President Hosni Mubarak and ushered in an unpredictable future for the country. Tourism, a cornerstone of the economy, remains severely reduced, thanks in no small part to ongoing riots, a measured State Department travel alert, and a so-called crime wave reported by The New York Times.

But right now can be a great time to visit the country because important sites are refreshingly free of crowds, including the National Museum where, pre-revolution, you'd expect to see 50,000 other tourists on a given day, says Amr Badr, Abercrombie & Kent's managing director for Egypt and the Middle East. Now, a crowd of 500 would be considered a crush, Badr says. Speaking to The Informer before recent violence, Badr said the landmark center of January's revolution, Tahrir Square, now competes with the Pyramids as the top tourist site in Cairo.

Badr's endorsement of Egypt is echoed by one of Condé Nast Traveler's travel specialists, Tom Baker, a cruise expert who just returned from a three-week trip through Egypt and Jordan and sent this incredible dispatch:

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Haisam and family on the steps of his grandmother's villa* in Helwan in 1984.

Haisam Hussein, longtime Graphics Editor at Condé Nast Traveler, was born in Cairo in 1972 and came to the United States at two years old. The son of a U.N. translator, he spent every other summer until high school visiting Helwan, a suburb of Cairo. “When I was a kid,” Haisam remembers, “We spent two months hanging out with family, going all around Cairo with cousins, renting bikes, and horseback riding near the pyramids. Now of course, everyone there in my extended family is camped out in their apartments. No one is going to work or to school. I’m a little worried about supplies for them. Not too many stores are open.”

Significantly, while the government is nonfunctional, the people are stepping in on a community level to keep law and order. For Haisam, this kind of behavior isn’t surprising at all. “I see this attitude especially when I read about people setting up their own security groups to frisk protesters going into the square and organizing cleaning groups.” When Haisam visited growing up, Egypt was a safe place. “We never worried about getting mugged and getting into trouble. Even now, everyone still looks out for everyone else.”

Tahrir Square, where the majority of protest and violence has occurred, contains the Egyptian Antiquities Museum, an institution not of repression, but of cultural celebration. Haisam’s strongest memories of Tahrir Square are of visiting the museum, one of Egypt’s most valuable tourist destinations, and of course, its myriad gastronomic pleasures. Beloved falafel chain-restaurants, classic tea and shisha cafes, and world-class dining are all just steps away. “Not too far from the square is my favorite sweet shop, probably Cairo’s most famous, called El-Abd. They have basboosa, which reminds me of Ramadan because lots of sweets are offered at the end of the fast. It reminds me of my mom’s cooking. She still makes that.” Also nearby is Haisam’s favorite koshari place: “It’s a dish that’s popular in Egypt with rice, lentils, elbow macaroni, and fried onions mixed with hot sauce. It’s my comfort food.”

For the foreseeable future, civil life in Egypt will remain largely uncertain, yet Haisam remains cautiously hopeful. “I feel like Egyptians are frustrated because they’re proud of their country but not proud of their government. Look, there was an emergency law in place for decades and a real fear of being whisked away, held indefinitely, and likely tortured. People were not secure in their ability to speak out freely. But Egyptians, as a people, love to share ideas and have opposing viewpoints and they love to be able to freely voice them. That’s what this is about now. I can see them taking to democracy quite well.”

* Says Haisam about his grandmother's home: "That place was sweet. It was kind of run down but big and airy with two verandas, two gardens (with mango, guava, and orange trees), a small attic and a basement where she kept chickens and rabbits. And it had this huge metal gate that opened to a dirt driveway, and that’s where we used to play soccer.

"When I was younger my mom’s whole family lived there—or at least they were there practically every day—so it was like a big party the whole time. It’s since been torn down and replaced with an ugly apartment building."

Photo: Flickr/Al Jazeera English

No matter how tonight goes in Cairo—at the moment, tough—tomorrow will be big. Basically, the opposition’s declared “departure day” for Mubarak will intersect with Friday prayers. Mubarak and proxies have zero problem sending in the boys to kidnap and/or crack heads, as we know. This will keep hurting him internationally, but it wasn’t designed as a public relations move. The opposition is gambling—big—that the week’s holiest day will shield them. Mubarak bets that it will not.

Writing from New York, our security correspondent Guy Martin files some thoughts on current events in Egypt—and their parallels to the 1989 democratic revolution in Czechoslovakia.

To parse Cairo’s lurching chaos, it’s helpful to draw on the lessons of Central and Eastern Europe 22 years ago, as that chunk of the Continent experienced "viral" revolutions in a matter of months. Egypt is working through its iteration of the Velvet Revolution, a circumstance to be welcomed generally, if not in the dire workings of its day-to-day maelstrom. Firebombs were tossed tonight in central Cairo. Hundreds have died in the last few days. As in 1989, it’s now the responsibility of the world’s democracies to support this country’s—and the region’s—angst-ridden process of moving its political life into the open.

The similarities between Cairo in 2011 and Prague in 1989 are striking: one of the nation’s leading intellectuals, Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei, is the Havel-like rallying point for the political opposition; the army—smartly, to date at least—refuses to turn on its people. And the backlash is there, too, in Wednesday’s attempt to break the protests with whip-wielding pro-Mubarak thugs on camel- and horseback. Prague’s security police did exactly that—minus the camels, but with plenty of cudgels—on November 17, 1989. And if we’ve learned anything since 1989, the cudgels will be pulled out again tomorrow.

That is, until the sheer numbers of the anti-Mubarak protesters overwhelm them, whether it’s with a little bloodshed, a lot of bloodshed, whether it’s tomorrow, or next week, or in a few months. Time is not on Mr. Mubarak’s side, as even he seemed to acknowledge yesterday in his truculent pre-abdication I’m-not-abdicating speech.

He can do much damage in the meantime, but ultimately, he’ll be brought down by the signs of unshakable independence, civic pride, and the heartbreaking moments of grace on the ground. The neighborhood watch groups spontaneously ringing their neighborhoods to wall out would-be rioters, or the Cairenes quickly forming a human chain around the National Museum to stop the looting of the national heritage—these are the heartening "velvet" aspects of this time. It’s their revolution; foreigners have not been targeted for violence in the streets, except, interestingly, by pro-Mubarak forces who today began pummeling camera teams and other journalists caught between the lines—also a classic desperate move from the playbook of an arrogant, out-of-touch dictatorship. To date, none of the foreigners left in the resorts have been hurt. In their generous and frank interviews with local and foreign journalists, the anti-Mubarak forces evince much national pride. I am doing this for my country, they say. The magic words.

As travelers, as political beings fortunate enough to have lived in a stable democracy for the last 235 years, and finally, as global citizens, we owe a tremendous cultural debt to Egypt and the Egyptians. Their role in early human history cannot be over-emphasized.

We can repay the debt by doing everything in our power to ensure that their courage, so frankly displayed today, is not squandered tomorrow. We do not want Cairo to become Prague in 1968, when the fledgling reforms were so bloodily crushed.

It’s about helping Cairo become Prague in 1989.

Photo: Flickr/Sarah Carr of Cairo Occupied

It's a complicated question, but the short answer, based on conversations with our travel specialists, writers, and information from the U.S. government is yes, particularly if you're scheduled to depart in the next couple months.

Here's a run-down of what we're hearing:

From travel specialist Rita Zawaideh:

To bypass government blocking of websites, use numerical IP addresses [instead of URLs]: Twitter 128.242.240.52, Facebook is 69.63.189.34, and Google is 172.14.204.99.

From our security correspondent Guy Martin:

Some 1,600 Americans have been evacuated on the State Dept. charter flights since Monday, with more to come. Delta, KLM and Air France are flying to Athens and on Wednesday will add 200 seats to Rome. The airport? Still a disaster. Again: bring food, water, and patience.

From the U.S. State Department Tuesday:

On February 1, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency U.S. government personnel and family members from Egypt. ... The U.S. Department of State continues to recommend that U.S. citizens avoid travel to Egypt at this time.  U.S. citizens should consider leaving Egypt as soon as they can safely do so, due to ongoing political and social unrest.  Large-scale demonstrations with the potential for violence continue in several areas of Cairo, Alexandria, and other parts of the country, and rail and road travel has been disrupted between cities, and between city centers and airports.  Disruptions in communications, including internet service, also continue.

Tour operator Intrepid Travel has canceled 19 itineraries in the next two weeks that were to visit Egypt. Gap Adventures CEO Bruce Poon Tip tweeted Tuesday that "All our travellers are now home & safe from Egypt." And the Four Seasons Hotel Cairo reports that it "is not accepting reservations at this time. All current guests and employees of the Hotel are safe. The Hotel is continuing to experience Internet and phone disruptions, but incoming and outgoing land lines are operating as normal." For more, The Guardian is doing a wonderful job of tracking the details of the ongoing events in Egypt.

Update, February 2: Viking River Cruises reports that it has safely evacuated all 91 of its guests that were in Egypt by chartering an Airbus A320 exclusively for its clients. The cruise line has canceled all Egypt itineraries through the end of February, a total of 12 sailings, citing passenger safety. Tour operator Abercrombie & Kent has taken similar steps, evacuating its clients as of Monday and canceling eight trips to Egypt through February 28. The company is working to reschedule affected itineraries.

Photo of the Kyaiktiyo Pagoda: Flickr/Rebecca Stanek

The military junta that controls Burma, also called Myanmar, won elections held on Sunday, which the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared "neither free nor fair." That would tend to paint a trip to the nation as less than ethical. But last week, reports Benedict Rogers in the Guardian, the National League for Democracy, the political party of Aung San Suu Kyi, lifted its recommendation that all travel to Burma be avoided. With that endorsement, is now the time for a trip?

The NLD's U Win Tin told Rogers, "We want people to come to Burma, not to help the junta, but to help the people by understanding the situation: political, economic, moral—everything." Rogers, who works with the human rights group Christian Solidarity Worldwide in London, says that "If people are well-informed before they go to Burma about the human rights and humanitarian situation, if they travel independently and minimise the amount they contribute to the regime's coffers, and if they go with the intention of not just having a holiday, but doing something to help, then [visiting] is worthwhile."

The coordinating author of Lonely Planet's 10th edition guide to the country, Robert Reid, agreed with that suggestion in an email message. (It should be mentioned that I happen to know Reid socially.):

NLD adjusting its travel boycott to focus only on package tourists is really in line with what I heard from locals while researching the last two [Lonely Planet] guidebooks to Burma. I spoke with NLD leaders, student protestors from 1988, and locals across the country—and everyone I could find saw a difference between signing up for package trips, particularly when arranged by the military government's tourism organization, and independent travelers going to family run guesthouses and eating at local restaurants. Some told me, "I love the lady"—Aung San Suu Kyi—"but I disagree on the boycott. I wish I could talk with her!"

When the boycott began, in the mid '90s, it was harder to keep the bulk of your money away from the junta. And, it's important to note that it's still impossible to visit without some money reaching them. But things have changed too. There are more privatized businesses and accommodations, and (while) foreigners had to change $200 for FEC notes on arrival (in the past), that policy has been over for several years now.

If you're interested in visiting but not quite ready for a fully independent trip, our Burma travel specialist William Myatwunna is the go-to resource for information on ethical travel in the country.

Don't expect an American deluge just yet, say travel experts. Above, Havana's ever-dramatic seawall, the Malecón
Photo: Calvys Ardisson, Condé Nast Traveler

Cuba—home of salsa dancing, cigars, ’57 Chevys, chilly relations with the United States, and a Hemingway novel—may soon see more visitors from the States. Murmurs of legislation bent on softening relations between the two countries have grown louder in 2010, and have some looking toward a future where all travel restrictions go the way of the Cold War. But what exactly does the current policy look like, and how would changing it affect Cuba?

A result of the 1960 embargo, the austerity of those restrictions has ebbed and flowed depending on who’s occupying the White House. More recently, “dating back to 2000,” writes Mark Sullivan, a Latin American-affairs specialist for the Congressional Research Service, “there have been numerous legislative efforts to ease restrictions on travel to Cuba in various ways.”

Bear in mind that it’s not illegal to visit Cuba; it’s just illegal to spend money there. “The embargo [prohibits] financial transactions…which effectively result[s] in a travel ban,” Sullivan explains. This year, a bill to lift the ban—H.R. 4645, the Travel Restriction Reform and Export Enhancement Act, which also aims to deregulate agricultural trade with Cuba—could have made more Americans eligible to visit Cuba. But the bill stalled when House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-CA) argued a “robust and uninterrupted debate” was necessary—and unlikely before the November elections.

General tourist licenses are not an option. Yet, while only Congress can eliminate the ban, the president can dictate how it’s enforced. Travel licenses are issued by the Treasury Department, and only to journalists, professionals in a noncommercial capacity, and family members no more than three generations removed. In 2009, President Obama curbed limits on the frequency and duration of family visits and cash remittances. Although there have been reports that the White House is considering removing obstacles for more educational and entertainment travel (like planned trips by the American Ballet Theatre and New York City Ballet this November), nothing has yet come about.

So, as speculation abounds and political entities maneuver, I decided to ask two people who have traversed the country recently what they thought increased American traffic would mean for Cuba.

Frequent Condé Nast Traveler contributor Patrick Symmes has visited and written about Cuba extensively, and possesses an insight that most Americans do not. Does he believe more travel should be permitted? To an extent. “We should diminish the travel embargo, bit by bit. Start by formally ending all enforcement against individual travelers,” Symmes says. “We shouldn't legalize the use of credit cards, or let U.S. tourism companies operate, until the Cuban state gives up its monopoly, and lets ordinary people open their own tourism businesses.”

If that were the case, would Cubans welcome us? Symmes is succinct, “They love Americans.” He goes on, “There is substantial European tourism there, so Americans are often surprised—they expect isolation. The atmosphere, architecture, timelessness, decay, spirit, grace, struggle, and beaches are all just as fantastic as legend has it.” Symmes echoed that sentiment in his latest article for Outside magazine, suggesting that “a flood of rowdy, cash-waving Americans is just what the place needs.”

Neil Shea, a contributing writer for National Geographic magazine, who “started out with an empty jeep, picking up everybody” while driving across Cuba in 2008, takes a less amenable stance. “Aside from the resorts,” says Shea, “Cuba's infrastructure isn't prepared to handle loads of tourists, and what many American tourists are accustomed to in terms of amenities, Internet connections, reliable showers and electricity.” He maintains that such a surge could be “followed by a downturn once Americans realize that visiting Cuba isn't like visiting the Bahamas.”

If a new market of travelers was suddenly available for Cuba to capitalize on, Shea fears, the need for business could lead to the “same negative effects that happen anywhere tourism meets a third world economy,” where many are “willing to ride the wave without considering the consequences.” But his optimism should not be understated, “Ultimately, it's up to the Cubans to decide what's important to them, and they're very smart, very adaptable people.”

It’s been five decades since Americans regularly crossed the Straits of Florida. And while obviously nobody knows precisely how relaxing travel restrictions will affect Cuba, it’s clear the reality of doing so is closer to being within reach than it has been in years. Perhaps, then, the question is no longer if, but how soon.

Just yesterday, we mentioned niche carrier OpenSkies and its very competitive business-class fares on flights between New York and Washington, D.C. and Paris. Now the airline's making a remarkable promise: if you don't enjoy your trip, you'll get your money back. Yes, really.

The guarantee is good for trips booked (and taken) now through November 30. And there appears to be no catch—other than the fact that to claim a refund, you have to mail a real, sent-through-the-postal-service letter to OpenSkies explaining why exactly "the onboard travel experience was unsatisfactory." That there's no mention of just what might rate as a refundable calamity means the carrier has covered itself from claims abuse somewhat.

Still, it's a gutsy move for an airline, the likes of which we don't remember ever seeing before. OpenSkies says 97 out of 100 passengers would recommend the carrier. The next couple months may reveal just how believable that claim of customer satisfaction really is.

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

The life of a currency trader must be a weary one: up and down, up and down, the euro is now off its late-summer climb and back down below $1.30, trading at $1.26. On the year, that puts it down more than 11 percent, a decent dent.

What's causing the latest sag? Last week, fears of global economic stagnation keep the safe-haven appeal of the dollar strong, but The Economist says that may not last through summer. And with a record-setting performance from the yen early this week, other currencies may be taking the greenback's place as the go-to for socking away under the world's mattress. The takeaway: jump on these double-digit dips while you still can.

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

At last, flat is the new up. After weeks of a slow and steady climb for the euro, it's holding steady at $1.31, providing temporary relief for travelers on the Continent who booked travel plans back when the common currency was trading down at $1.20. At today's level, the euro is just eight percent off its value at the start of 2010—not much of a bargain at all, considering transatlantic airfares have been brutally expensive this season.

What's causing the measured climb? Slow economic recovery in the U.S. has been driving doubt about the dollar, while surprisingly resilient European banks have the euro looking like a safe bet. (Asian banks buying up European assets is helping drive the dollar down, too.)

So what's a traveler to do? The days of savings through exchange rates may have passed us by—but the days of cheaper, shoulder-season airfares across the pond are almost upon us. And not a moment too soon.

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

Where once there was hope, now there's but dread. The euro has continued its climb, which started in June, and now sits above $1.30, off just eight percent from the start of the year. Seems like only yesterday pundits were predicting euro-dollar parity, doesn't it?

Now, says an expert quoted in Bloomberg:

The dollar is weak in general—it’s a continuation of the trend we’ve seen develop over the last two months.

Bleak stuff! Fortunately, shoulder season is creeping up, offering better deals in general to Europe, even if the exchange rates don't cooperate. Where to look? Aggregators like DealBase and Travelzoo are two places to start—and don't rule out newly affordable business-class airfare.

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

Turns out we shouldn't have stressed: After much fretting over what European banks might reveal late last week, the results of their stress tests were mostly positive. That didn't cause the common currency to surge against the dollar, and we're still sitting at $1.30 per euro, flat since last week and down about nine percent from the start of the year.

Economic data in the U.S. continues to keep the dollar down, too. Nevertheless, deals continue to spread across Europe, at least according to our friends at Travelzoo, who report that the Continent will be awash in deals this fall thanks to softer demand. As for where the exchange rate is headed? It's anyone's guess.

Ad agencies these days! In their aim to grab your attention, too often they just end up angering a lot of people—and fail at being edgy or ground breaking.

Take Niagara Falls' new ad campaign. The catty ads, commissioned by the Niagara Parks Commission, take shots at Toronto by depicting it as a noisy, crime infested, urban prison that makes people question their mental well-being. In one ad, a jolly, yuppie, Canadian couple rolls their calm little eyes at city traffic before escaping to Niagara Falls to bike on a lovely car-free path. Freeing! The ad ends with the words "Shake Off the City" and a drawing of the Toronto skyline is shaken and turns into trees.

The city of Toronto took that as "shots fired" material. David Whitaker, CEO of Toronto Tourism, told The Globe and Mail, “there’s a big difference between a strategy that works and a strategy that gets attention, and smart marketers know the difference.” Whitaker added that insulting Torontonians, the market that ad campaign is aimed at, is "over-reaching, and raises a flag."

Joel Noden, the creative behind the advertising campaign, said it wasn't meant to slight Toronto and that he loves the city. Toronto and Niagara have now made up, but we wanted to take a look at other ad campaigns that left us wondering, Who the heck thought this was a good idea?!

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A warning sign in Pensacola Beach, Florida
Photo: flickr/ starryeyedmind

Sure, the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico has been capped (for now), but numerous hotels and hotel booking sites continue to roll out guarantees to combat misconceptions that every beach on the Gulf Coast is awash in oil—and lure back skittish beach-goers.

But, not all guarantees are created equal, so we've taken a look at which are the best, and what you should look for:

• The most generous hotel assurance policy and our favorite is Hilton Worldwide's "Beach Satisfaction Guarantee" that applies to dozens of hotels in the Gulf area. Unlike other policies, no official warning has to be issued if guest wants to depart early or cancel their entire reservation through July 31. In other words, if a guest wants to cancel or change a reservation, all fees will be waived and guests who depart early will receive refunds for any unused nights.
• InterContinental Hotel Group is offering a "No-Risk Beach Guarantee" at select hotels in the area. IHG will issue a full refund for prepaid reservations and waive early departure fees if you check-out before your schedule departure time. But IHG will only activate this if they receive official notice from government officials that shoreline is being negatively impacted.
• Marriott International created the "Marriott Beach Guarantee" at participating Marriott hotels in the area through Labor Day. Marriott will offer guests a hotel credit, valued at just 50 percent of the room rate, to guests for every day the beach is closed. Additionally, guests who book in advance can cancel prior to arrival and get a full refund if the beach is closed during their stay.
• If you book through Hotels.com, use coupon code OILFLEX at a select number of Florida hotels and you'll receive a full refund should the beaches be closed. Also, cancellation fees will also be waived. You'll need to book before Sept. 6 and travel before Sept. 30.
• Orbitz also has a similar policy called the "Open Beach Guarantee". If a government agency closes a beach within 20 miles of your hotel, Orbitz customers will be eligible for a full refund for unused hotel nights. This offer expires July 31.

The takeaway? Before you book your hotel on the Gulf Coast, do your research on specific cancellation policies and get all guarantees in writing—and make sure you know when the offer you're interested in ends.

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

And here we thought the euro might dive to parity with the greenback. Instead, the euro just peaked a shade over $1.30, with traders cashing in on the rise before this week's scheduled release of "stress test" data on the European banking system.

The eight-week high has erased much of the gains the dollar has made through 2010, and travelers are now saving just 9.5 percent over what they would've spent at the start of the year. Not that we're wishing calamity on Europe, but we'd be more likely to extend our trips to the Continent if predictions about getting a euro for a buck actually came true.

Source: Miami Herald

After 86 days that saw nearly 200 MILLION gallons of oil gush into the U.S. waters, BP says it has capped its blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico.

But don't rejoice just yet, because this is only a "interim measure."

Coast Guard Commander Thad W. Allan said that BP must still complete the relief wells it is working on in order to seal the well for good, reports The New York Times.

Mr. Allen called it a “precursor” to containment, making it possible for the gushing crude to be captured through four different systems that together can keep up with the estimated rate of flow, which the government now puts at 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day. If all goes well, it may also be used to seal the well completely for brief periods.

“I don’t want to reverse the priorities here, because the priority was to contain and stop the flow of oil,” he said, “but the design of the cap itself, if we can withstand the pressures and the well bore stays intact, presents the opportunity to shut the well in, which will give us the ability to abandon the site in a hurricane, so it’s a two-for if we can do it.”

BP Vice President Kent Wells is "cautiously optimistic," reports The Miami Herald.

The company designed the beefier, more sophisticated "cap stack'' to capture most, and potentially all, of the estimated 35,000 to 60,000 barrels flowing into the Gulf daily. A leaky earlier design allowed BP to siphon off or burn some 20,000 barrels a day but also spewed a dark cloud on the ocean floor recorded by the unwavering eyes of cameras mounted to deep-diving robots.

If the new cap works, one option is to pump oil to as many as four collection ships with a capacity of up to 80,000 barrels a day—a plan that could be executed by month's end.

But if pressure tests show the well casing—the pipe that runs three miles below the ocean floor—is solid and can withstand the pressure, Wells said BP could potentially use the cap as a temporary cork until relief wells permanently plug or "shut in'' the gusher.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, for one, isn't ready to celebrate just yet, reports The Miami Herald. The governor said it was only natural to remain doubtful after gross under-estimations of the spill and earlier "top kill'' and "junk shot'' setbacks.

"I have hopes they get it done,'' Crist said. "I think we're all a bit skeptical.''

Us too. Keep your fingers crossed.

UPDATED:

As of this morning, pressure continues to rise in the cap that—at least for now—has stemmed the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. That's good because it means the well is not compromised and leaking elsewhere, according to NPR's Moring Edition.

While you're listening to NPR's excellent report, get a better picture of the magnitude of the engineering required to get this latest cap in place with these amazing photos from National Geographic.

NBC's Today show also had a good report on the spill and what we can and cannot expect from this cap.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The brief, unattributed quote from the scruffy young man on his boat really brought home what it must be like to sit mostly helpless while your livelihood is snuffed out and each day is more destructive to the Gulf.

"It's finally an end to a groundhog day of waking up and it being the same and oil still spilling."

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

Sorry, Greece. This week it's Portugal with the depressing debt situation, with Moody's downgrading the Iberian nation's paper on growing fears of default. And while the news did help the dollar, the euro still costs $1.27, up more than four percent over the past month.

Maybe those predictions of dollar-euro parity were a bit premature? Could be, but we're watching for the results of a series of "stress tests" scheduled to be released July 23. Bad news there, and cheap business-class seats to Europe will look even better.

Every Tuesday, we'll be watching the euro and how its ongoing woes benefit the dollar-toting traveler.

After a month of little movement, the euro rose swiftly this past week, thanks to disappointing news about the rate of domestic economic recovery—a reversal of roles for Europe and the U.S., as the former has been waking up to its own disappointing economic headlines for months. With prices cresting at $1.26, the euro hit a six-week high against the dollar, though it's still substantially cheaper than it was at the start of the year.

But the slight uptick may not hold: Exchange rate analysts are going so far as to predict dollar-euro parity sometime in 2011 after a long, slow decline that will increasingly favor American travelers abroad. Announcements out of a meeting of top European bankers on Thursday will likely be what starts—or halts—those predicted declines. Fingers crossed!

Google’s quest for global domination continued Thursday with the acquisition of the travel-search company ITA Software for a cool $700 million, a purchase that could have a big impact in the crowded online travel marketplace.

ITA organizes flight information like prices and the availability of seats and is used by major airlines and online travel agencies like Orbitz and Kayak. Google said they will create new tools that will let consumers comparison shop for airfares and direct users to airlines and other travel agencies websites. But, Google added, they will not sell tickets directly to customers.

In a conference call yesterday, Google CEO Eric Schmidt said “it’s unlikely that anything we do will look like anything available today.” Schmidt added that it’s too early to create a business model.

At first glance, this might seem like just another acquisition by ever-growing Google, interesting only to software nerds. But a deeper look shows that the move could have wide-ranging effects.

For starters, ITA has little name recognition among the general public and is used primarily by travel insiders—but with the Google brand behind it, that could change. Take a look at previous purchases like GrandCentral and Earth View, which are now both popular internet services, Google Voice and Google Earth, respectively.

Secondly, observers question if travel services Kayak and Bing can compete against the new Google-ITA service. Kayak is looking into an IPO and investors could be wary if they see a new super-site looming in the horizon, because, as The Next Web asks, if you search “cheap flights” in Google, whose data do you think will come up, Google's or another fare aggregator's?

Lastly, government officials are sure to examine closely how Google strong-armed, according to the Boston Globe, the purchase of ITA. The Globe continues writing that Microsoft and other search website companies formed a consortium to buy ITA, but Google got there first. 

Competitors, like Expedia and the European online travel company Amadeus, wanted to keep ITA independent thus not endangering their already existing services. But Google says in a press release since they don't currently compete in the online travel marketplace, the deal “will not change existing market shares.”

Maybe so. But with the addition of Google’s recent foray into mashing-up hotel prices and Google Maps, the purchase of ITA could be the next big step in creating a one-stop place for all things travel.

New York City's (in)famous JFK airport
Photo: flickr / as737700

I got a good chuckle watching the local New York City news outlets' coverage of the reopening of John F. Kennedy International Airport's runway 13R-31L, known as the Bay Runway.

The 14,572-foot-long runway along Jamaica Bay that handles one-third of JFK's traffic had been shuttered since March 1 so that it could be resurfaced and widened to accommodate the new generation of wide-body aircraft—the A380, Dreamliner 787, and even the space shuttle. By getting the Bay Runway operational on Monday, the $348-million project officially wrapped up three days ahead of schedule and $28 million bucks under budget.

And boy did everybody who could take credit for the feat take credit for the feat. Check out the back slapping in the local Fox 5 report:




Why all the back slapping? As Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Executive Director Christopher O. Ward explained in The New York Times story covering the reopening: "The public cynicism for the capacity of an agency like the Port Authority to build on time, or on budget, is pretty high."

Indeed.

The Old Gray Lady also points out that one of the biggest accomplishments of the project is that most travelers flying in and out of JFK "did not really notice that the biggest runway there had been closed for four months of repairs."

About 24 percent of departing flights at the airport were delayed in March, up from 16 percent a year earlier, according to data from the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics. But in April, only 16 percent of flights were delayed, down from 21 percent a year ago.

Um, yeah, but what the story doesn't mention is that those statistics still put JFK at the bottom of the bucket as far as on-time performance for major U.S. airports is concerned. In April, the latest month for which Bureau of Transportation data is available, JFK ranked 26 of 29 for on-time arrivals and 24 of 29 for on-time departures. Should flyers take solace in the fact that Newark International Airport ranks lower in both categories?

Most of the news coverage also misses a tidbit reported by NYCaviation.com: Airlines extended their reduced winter schedules through June to prevent back-ups. The airport will see over 650 takeoffs daily once summer schedules commence...TODAY.

This all reeks of diminished expectations. Travelers didn't notice the runway was down because they expect delays at JFK. On-time completion of a major Port Authority project is a success because the public expects such work to be both delayed and over budget.

The Port Authority estimates that improvements in the Bay Runway's design will reduce flight delays by 10,500 hours a year. Save the back slapping for when those reductions are realized and JFK cracks the top 20 U.S. airports for on-time performance.